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One Country, Two Currencies
Charles Gave / Gavekal Research | 8 May 2025
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China is a highly unusual country. Unlike other countries, it has two central banks, the People’s Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and two currencies, the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar. In this note, Charles outlines his understanding of how the Chinese authorities manage their financial system(s).
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Stagflation Or Reflation?
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 8 May 2025
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With President Donald Trump adding new import tariffs by the day, is the US set to see slowing growth, rising unemployment and high inflation? At Gavekal, we call this stagflationary brew an inflationary bust. Although the risk of stagflation has risen since January, Will thinks the more likely outcome is reflation, or in other words an inflationary boom.
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Huawei’s DeepSeek Moment In AI test
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 29 Apr 2025
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Huawei beats Nvidia in AI. Huawei’s latest AI cluster overcame chip-level constraints with system-level innovations. Nvidia risks more chip bans. Nvidia has suspended more chip sales to China, though grey-market channels remain active. Xiaomi faces heightened sanction risk. Xiaomi’s tech progress in mobile SoC using TSMC’s advanced tech could make it a US sanction target.
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Huawei’s DeepSeek Moment In AI
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 29 Apr 2025
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Huawei’s latest AI cluster overcame chip-level constraints with system-level innovations. Nvidia has suspended more chip sales to China, though grey-market channels remain active. And Xiaomi’s tech progress in mobile SoC using TSMC’s advanced tech could make it a US sanction target.
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Nvidia’s DeepSeek Dilemma
Laila Khawaja / Gavekal Technologies, Chips | 11 Apr 2025
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Early coverage of DeepSeek’s cost-efficient open-source large language models highlighted the risk to Nvidia that algorithmic and architectural innovations could reduce demand for its chips. The reality is otherwise: Chinese companies are ramping up orders for Nvidia’s sanction-compliant H20 chips to support the surging demand for inference—the process of running trained AI models in real-world applications.
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China On The Nile
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 20 Mar 2025
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The US has long been by far the most influential external power in the Middle East. But in recent years US ties to Arab countries have frayed badly, even as China has become increasingly important as a trade, investment and diplomatic partner for the region. How this process is playing out in Egypt is likely to be repeated across the Middle East, writes Tom Miller, freshly returned from a research visit to Cairo.
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India Macro Update: The Road To Recovery
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 13 Mar 2025
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After slowing for four consecutive quarters, India’s economy is showing signs of perking up. GDP growth is back above 6%, buoyed by a monetary policy easing and healthy household consumption. Tax cuts will also help at the margin. But a dramatic acceleration in growth is unlikely, as the public infrastructure boom fades and private investment continues to disappoint.
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Tariffs And DOGE: Are They Really Killing US Growth?
Will Denyer / Gavekal Research | 13 Mar 2025
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Is Donald Trump’s administration a mortal threat to US growth? Investors have clearly decided that it is. In the weeks since Trump’s inauguration, US equities, cryptocurrencies and the US dollar have sold off, while US treasuries have rallied, with yields falling steeply. This is a sharp about-turn from the initial market reaction following Trump’s election victory. Will examines whether the markets are justified, and if it will change its mind once more.
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Video: Rubio Wields The Big Stick
Tom Miller / Gavekal Research | 11 Feb 2025 Video
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Marco Rubio is the first US Secretary of State since 1912 to initiate his term in office with a multi-country tour of Latin America. For the most part, he did not come bearing gifts, but wielded a large stick as the new Trump administration seeks to achieve its policy aims of halting illegal migration and the flow of drugs across its southern border, while also countering Chinese influence in the region. In this video, Tom argues why it will be hard for the US to foster a powerful neo-Monroe doctrine beyond its immediate backyard.
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A Defense Reformation
Yanmei Xie / Gavekal Research | 11 Feb 2025
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The era of rearmament has arrived. In order to both deter Vladimir Putin and appease Donald Trump, Europe is set to crank up defense spending towards levels seen in the United States. The US itself just committed to build a new “Iron Dome” missile defense shield. But this armaments windfall will be spread unevenly and defense stock prices reflect an ongoing shakeup in the industry.
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