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Gavekal Dragonomics
Meet The Central Financing Vehicles
Xiaoxi Zhang
13 Jan 2025
On top of the official fiscal expansion China’s central government is planning for 2025, two central SOEs are also issuing substantial off-balance-sheet debt to fund stimulus programs. That makes them “central government financing vehicles” analogous to the local government ones that have been in place for years. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains the implications of this new development in China’s debt dynamics.
Gavekal Dragonomics
How Much To Fear Trump’s Tariffs?
Andrew Batson
9 Jan 2025
How much does China have to fear from a new round of US tariffs? The conventional answer is quite a lot, but Andrew argues that the government’s push in recent years for export-oriented manufacturers to focus more on domestic demand and import substitution means the hit to China’s growth from even high US tariffs could be less than many economists assume.
Gavekal Research
The Crypto Capital And The (Non) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Will Denyer
20 Dec 2024
"Bitcoin" has broken through US$100,000 on the belief that Trump 2.0 will be friendlier to the crypto industry than either crypto-skeptical Trump 1.0, or the hostile Biden administration. The question for investors is whether the surge in crypto-currency prices since November’s US election can be sustained. Will argues that the price gains have been driven by two main hopes, one of which is justified and the other of which may not play out as crypto bulls hope.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Trade War Artillery Moves Into Place
Arthur Kroeber, Thomas Gatley
18 Dec 2024
A month away from Donald Trump’s second inauguration, the evidence is mounting that his opening gambits on trade policy will be aggressive. Arthur and Thomas examine what the initial US salvo against China might look like, as well as the many options by which Beijing could fire back.
Gavekal Dragonomics
London Conference, September 2024
Research Team, Dragonomics Team
Video: Chinese Equities In 2025
Thomas Gatley
Lessons From The Tariff Tantrum
Arthur Kroeber
Webinar: After The Vote
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber, Louis-Vincent Gave
Webinar: Navigating The Markets' Summer Storm
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
Video: Towards A Trade War On All Fronts
Yanmei Xie